(Updated with additional information from ROSCOSMOS and CNSA, China National Space Administration)

With space being infinite both in potential resources and in… well, space, a war over it was the last thing anyone expected. But, late last night, we were closer to World War 3 than during the Cuban Missile Crisis over 60 years ago.

It all started at 10pm Pacific Time with several American early warning satellites suddenly de-orbiting and burning up on reentry. The US immediately went to DEFCON 2, while suspecting China and Russia of acts of war. Within the next 20 minutes, Kenya, India, and the EU in quick succession reported that several of their critical defense and communications satellites had suddenly de-orbited. With no communication from either Russia or China, by 10:30pm, the US stepped up to DEFCON 1, and prepared for an immediate retaliatory strike.

Then, just after 2:00am, first China, then Russia, admitted that they had also lost strategic defense satellites. By 3:00am, the US stepped down to DEFCON 3, and the world’s leaders all took a deep breath. But big questions remained: How did this happen? And who was behind it?

There had been a friendly game of cat and mouse going on since the early 20s, with satellites tracking and chasing each other across the skies. The stakes escalated dramatically when America, China, and Russia all started testing offensive anti-satellite capabilities, and took on a much more sinister tone with the still unsolved ‘Great Space Hack of 2031’ (when the decommissioned ISS, now the Curved Horizons Hotel, was taken over by hackers for a few hours).

With increasing threats, it came as no surprise when the privately operated Guardian System was launched in 2034 to “keep the shipping corridors to Mars and the Artemis Moon Base safe and free from space debris.” Even though the mission parameters were classified, each transport run came with ‘bodyguards’; an accompanying swarm of small but solid kamikaze satellites ready to physically block any attacker.

In other words, there is no shortage of capable suspects, ranging from rogue space nations to well-funded activist hackers. Anyone with access to the internet and an AI could have hacked the satellites, directed swarms of ‘bodyguards’ to drag the satellites out of orbit, or just fried them with energy beams.

At this early stage of the investigation, Kenya and the EU haven’t ruled out a false flag operation and are calling for independent verification of every single satellite in orbit, its position, and its purpose, but neither China nor America is likely to accede to that request.

Whatever the truth behind this crisis, it will affect space exploration, tourism, and science for decades to come.

Why does this matter?

The space race is on, and nations as well as companies are in a rush to stake their claim on planets and asteroids, all in the pursuit of mineral extraction, refueling stations, and colonization dreams. It is a multi-trillion-dollar economy in the making, needing anything from AI driven operating systems, remote controlled zero-gravity mining equipment and pure freight logistics. The opportunities are endless and not limited to current national space agencies.

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Futureworld is constantly scanning the horizon for disruptive signals about new technologies, market forces, and innovative business models in the future. The concept of resource scarcity is certainly not new, but the grab for in-demand resources by the world’s largest economies and companies with the biggest balance sheets is evolving. Understanding the impact of market forces on rapidly developing new playing fields such as the space economy is what Futureworld specialises in. Distilling insights from focused research and incubating new businesses with bold clients and innovative startups is where the real value lies. To learn more about Futureworld’s Strategy from the Future^TM process, please contact Futureworld Principal Matt Lawlor or Mindbullets Editor Doug Vining.