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Who killed the electric car company?

EV startups head for the exit

At the end of 2020 Tesla’s stock soared by twenty times, instantly propelling Elon Musk to the status of the world’s richest person, and Tesla into the trillion-dollar club. This came after a decade of slow appreciation, and in the face of much skepticism. Suddenly, the market was alight.

At this point in the hype cycle, the peak of unrealized expectations, electric vehicle startups and IPOs were all the rage. The number of electric car companies that came out of stealth mode and floated on stock exchanges was staggering, as was their choice of names and brands.

But unveiling a fantastic prototype at the Shanghai or Detroit auto show, and getting it into production and then ramping up production to new heights, year after year, are very different things. Especially in the face of exponentially increasing competition – from the incumbent auto giants.

Suddenly there was a plethora of models and brands muddying the EV waters, as well as plug-in hybrids, mild hybrids, fuel cell cars, and hydrogen trucks. The makers of new, futuristic electric models found there was insufficient gap in the market, and insufficient market for their chosen niche. They were outclassed by Audi and outpriced by Tesla.

But the deal killer was profitability. Even Ford’s F150 Lightning proved to be a loss-leader, as popular as it was on launch. You see, Tesla’s many years of climbing the learning curve meant that it could surf the wave, increasing profit per unit even while cutting prices and ramping up production. And in China, so could BYD, with its massive volumes and battery business.

Smaller EV companies like Lordstown were swallowed up by established auto makers, while some simply filed for bankruptcy when the venture funding dried up. A few pivoted to air taxis, seeing adjacent opportunities in a brand-new industry without dominant players.

So, who killed the electric car startups? Tesla did. And BYD did. They own this market.

Warning: Hazardous thinking at work

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