What a difference a war makes. When US President Joe Biden orchestrated a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, many commentators thought it was the end of his career as POTUS. But then Vladimir Putin handed him the ultimate wildcard – an immoral war in Europe that no one could win.

Except for those that had nothing to lose. Events quickly showed that neither Russia nor Ukraine would be winners; neither would Europe or the UK benefit from the political and economic disruptions. China risked fallout from the west if it supported Russia too much. Everyone was stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Except for the United States. America is not just the biggest – possibly the only – military industrial superpower, it’s also a major producer of oil and gas, among other things, and the country that controls the strongest, most trusted, currency in the world. These may not seem important when peace reigns, and everyone is fighting for brownie points with trade partners, but when war is happening, it’s a different kettle of fish.

Now America has ‘saved’ Europe, providing the muscle to sanction Russia financially, and also fill the need for oil and gas, as the Russian taps were turned off. In fact, the rise in oil prices helped US oil majors regain their market cap, even as attention was diverted from climate commitments. The war was good for business; arms companies had a field day.

The biggest losers in this war were the Russian people; the economy was decimated, the state became a pariah, and living standards went back 20 years. Ukraine suffered equally from the conflict, but emerged victorious in their new found position as ‘part of Europe’ forever.

Putin was slated to step down in 2024; in the end he was removed by the people. And Biden is smiling. He’s assured of a second term.