MindBullets 20 Years

Tesla stock hits $5,000

Irrational exuberance overcomes investor fundamentals

In the 16 years since its IPO, Tesla has seen incredible volatility and incredible resilience. Now it is at an all-time high, and investors keep piling in, hoping for further multiples on their stakes.

“When Tesla hit $1,000, Baron told us he expected further multiples in the future, and he was right!” said one trader breathlessly, referring to billionaire and early Tesla investor Ron Baron. But even Baron underestimated Tesla’s stratospheric performance, punting a three-times multiple in five years. Instead, Tesla has risen 500% in the time most solid portfolios take to double, even in a bull market.

There’s a reason for this, and it’s Elon Musk, the 55-year-old entrepreneur and ‘space cowboy’ who has personally driven Tesla and SpaceX to exponential heights. “It’s not about the fundamentals,” said trading analyst Quint Tatru, “you either believe in his vision and ability to prove everyone wrong, or you don’t.”

That’s the thing with exponential thinking, it’s not based on the past. It’s not about the current market and best practice either. It’s about the future and creating the future that you want, reinventing the industry and exploring the unknown, taking risks. And that’s what Elon Musk has been doing for the last 25 years. He’s getting pretty good at it.

Which is why the irrational exuberance for his company’s stock is fully justified by the lack of fundamentals. When you’re way ahead of the curve, the fundamentals really don’t matter.

Warning: Hazardous thinking at work

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