When coal demand reached a new all-time high in 2027, many analysts were shocked. Almost everyone had expected the peak to be reached in 2025, with a gradual plateau developing thereafter. Instead, the curve spiked upwards.

Granted, a 2.5% increase over the previous record for global coal production isn’t a quantum leap, but with all the attention being devoted to the clean energy transition, you’d expect it to be in the other direction. In some ways, it mimicked the similar rise in 2024.

The reasons are all too obvious, after the fact. The inexorable rise in demand for electricity in Asia and Africa, supercharged by AI data centers, electric vehicles, and ‘clean’ industries in the west, pushed demand for primary energy resources beyond what could be absorbed by renewables. Add to that the growing disillusion with Net Zero and degrowth policies, and the US under Trump leading the charge against climate agreements.

To be fair, natural gas has surged to take up the slack. But with both oil and gas being used as geopolitical weapons in the trade wars of the 20’s, the opportunity was there for coal to flourish. Trade in coal between the BRICS countries, plus Australia, bypassed any tariffs and sanctions wielded in America and Europe. Remove the threat of carbon tax, and there’s nothing to stop it.

And let’s not forget the failure of fusion power to live up to the hype. The future of cheap, almost infinite energy from nuclear fusion is tantalizingly close, but we’re not there yet.

In the long run, coal’s decline is almost certain. We’re past the peak of demand, as new technologies and better alternatives take over. But for now, coal is stubbornly clinging to its position as the longest running industrial power source. Rumors of its death are greatly exaggerated.